Just one more win for safety?

[MarkW]

Twenty years of English basement league statistics suggest that York may only require one more win to retain league status.

Studying the points tally required over the last twenty years (since 1983/4) shows that on average, 45 points has been enough to secure 22nd place in English football's basement division. (Based on 46 matches per season and factoring upwards for the four "42" game seasons there have been).

In fact this average of 45 points is consistent in both of the last two decades worth of football, with there being only .1 points worth of difference between 1993/4 - 2002/3 and 1983/4 and 1992/3.

City may also take some comfort from the fact that any side reaching 50 points over the last twenty years would always retain 22nd place or above, although this points total was specifically required on no less than three occasions, namely 1988/9, 1989/90 and 1998/99. The most recent occasion being memorably when Scarborough fell out of the league and Jimmy Glass became a household name.

Meanwhile 1991/92 would have seen third from bottom secured with a paltry 39 points.

So, what are we to read into pure statistics? Probably not a great deal other than to say, City fans should feel doubley cursed if they gain 50 points and still taste Conference football next year.

Given our recent fortunes, if its going to happen to anyone...........